General Overview for 03/12/2014:
This pair is still in uptrend targeting first 107.75 level and then possibly 115.86 level as well (it depends where wave 4 will complete).
On lower time frames the market should start a corrective cycle to the downside in wave C of wave 4, but the alternate count indicates a possibility of a completed wave 4 (alt:4) at the level of 103.45. To invalidate this alternate count, the price must break out below the level of 103.45 first and then impulsively break even lower into 23%Fibo at the level of 102.37 and then it might bounce as three wave simple ABC corrective cycle would be finished. Of course, the market might evolve into more complex pattern next , like a triangle pattern, but for now on there is no sufficient data to support this assumption. Nevertheless any breakout below the level of 99.79 invalidates this bullish outlook.
Summary:
Breakout above 105.30 is bullish and target is at the level of 106.18 and higher (Supply Zone)
Breakout below 103.45 is bearish and target is at the level of 102.37.
Support/Resistance:
106.18 -107.10 – Supply Zone
105.30 – Swing High
103.45 – Intraday Support
102.37 – 23%Fibo
101.17 – Weekly Technical Support
99.80 – Invalidation Line
Trading Recommendations:
Swing traders should keep the buy orders open as the wave progression has not been completed yet.
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