GBP/USD H4 Analysis

















General overview for 15/07/2016:

The Friday price action resulted in a big down Doji candle, but it looks like there is more wood to chop to the upside anyway. From the Elliott Wave Theory point of view, the corrective cycle to the upside hasn’t been completed just yet and one more wave is needed anyway. Two scenarios are possible here:
– Scenario One – Main Count – Wave (iv) correction in progress – this wave should complete ideally around the 38%Fibo at the level of 1.3645 and then the impulsive spike down fro wave (v) should occur. It might, however, rally a little higher towards 505Fibo at the level of 1.3907 before down trend will continue. The invalidation line is at the level of 1.4012.
-Scenario Two – Alternative Count – the bottom for the wave 1 had been established at the level of 1.2793 and now the market is developing a corrective cycle in wave 2. The levels are for now the same as per wave (iv)
Please notice this is only a simple correction scenario and it might get more complex and time-consuming at any point in time.

Support/Resistance:


1.2675 – WS1
1.2793 – Local Low
1.3118 – Supply Zone
1.3216 – WR1
1.3483 – 1.3616 – Supply Zone
1.3552 – WR1
1.3645 – 38%Fibo
1.3907 – 50%Fibo
1.4012 – Invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:


Sell orders should be opened from the 38% and 50% levels as per analysis above*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. 

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About the author

Sebastian Seliga

Aktywny trader, analityk, ekspert metod inwestycyjnych bazujących na teorii fal Elliott'a, geometrii Fibonacciego i nie tylko.

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