USD/JPY – 2017 Analysis: Weekly, Daily and H4

General overview for 03/01/2017:

The situation in the long-term perspective is not quite clear at the moment as there are two possible scenarios that are applicable to the current Elliott wave progression. We can see the both of the scenarios at the Weekly chart:
– Scenario 1 – Main Count – indicates, that the ABC corrective structure fro the wave 2 (big cycle)  had completed at the level of 98.99 and now the market is unfolding another impulsive wave to the upside.
– Scenario 2 – Alternative Count – indicates, the ABC corrective structure is only a part of a bigger, more complex and time-consuming correction, that will eventually violate the low at the level of 98.99

And there is the golden long-term trend line that might provide the dynamic resistance for the price around the level of 119.00. This point of view has been presented in the daily chart and it would support the scenario 2 and if true, then the traders should see some indications of a possible trend reversal ( candlestick patterns, moving average breakout, etc).

On the other hand, another daily time frame scenario would indicate another reversal that is possible even the golden trendline is violated (but not permanently) as there are some Fibonacci clusters around the area of 120.20 – 121.60 that might be a tough nut to break.

At 4H time frame, the impulsive count looks not completed as there is some internal wave missing and there is no overbalance during the upward wave progression yet. Current most important levels seem to be the technical support at the level of 114.36.

121.11 – 121.60 – Second Target For Wave (5)
120.23 – 12060 – Fist Target For Wave (5)
119.00 – Golden Trendline Dynamic Resistance
118.71 – Local High
116.14 – Intraday Support
114.36 – Technical Support

Trading recommendations:
All swing long positions taken after US Presidential Elections might set the TP at the level of 119.00 or, in case of a sudden impulsive breakout, in one of the Fibonacci clusters. The corrective cycle is due any time now*.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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About the author

Sebastian Seliga

Aktywny trader, analityk, ekspert metod inwestycyjnych bazujących na teorii fal Elliott'a, geometrii Fibonacciego i nie tylko.

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