I do not trade today as I’m waiting for ECB Thursday and Non-Farm Payrolls Friday.
So, I’ve been trying to update the blog all morning and I’ve started with long term count of EUR/USD. I noticed it was wrong: my wave 4 blue already overlapsed wave 1 so the impulsive bearish structure has been invalidated. I have switched to weekly, re-labeled and this is what I got:
It looks ok so far so I 've started to update the Daily chart and this is what I got so far:
It looked correct as far as I could see.
But then I’ve checked the OLD 4H chart and it hit me when I saw it: there was and old abandoned wave that I used to label on my 4H chart – bold blue wave 1 and 2. I stoped to count and label according to this wave progress due to the suggestion that bold blue wave 3 is taking too much time to develop, nevertheless there was nothing wrong with labeling the current progress of this wave. I just looked at higher degree charts (higher TF) and it did not fit there. So I gave up counting it and including it in my charts.
And today, when I was wondering why the hell my wave 4 overlapsed the teritory of wave 1, I zoom out my chart and saw it straight away – I changed wave 2 navy to higher degree of ABC correction and rest of the puzzels just fit in perfectly.
You see, I used to count this move from 1.49000 last year every day on 15M, 1H and 4H time frame charts. And according to the fractal wave principle, if it fit on lower TF it must then fit on higher TF. IT DOES NOT GOES THE OTHER WAY! And I abandon this lower TF count because it did not fit well in the higher TF. And I should not do this to correctly count the waves according to fractal wave principle.
So, this is the count I re-labeled (4H TF):
Right now I have added this wave back on Daily TF and this is how it looks like:
So, right now I will be tracing two counts to see if Elliott Wave Principle can work so well on long term charts like those two presented above.
First count is the ABCDE ( wave B) triangle breakout to the downside in impulsive wave -main count
Second count is red 1, red 2 and now red 3 impulsive breakout from 1.4500 area – alt. count.
Time will tell.
Hope it helps,
PS: Flippin' hell , this is the longest post n this blog so far….! LOL