General overview for 01/09/2015:
The very long term Elliott wave count for Gold with data since 1975 is indicating the recent top at the level of $1918 to be only wave 3 top, and the current corrective cycle – wave 4. Bearing this in mind there are two conclusions to withdraw:
– there is wave 5 missing, so there must be another higher high above the level of $1918 (unless there will be wave 5 truncation)
– the current cycle is wave 4 correction that is in last stages of making the Ending Diagonal pattern before it will shoots up
The invalidation line for the bullish count comes at the level of $1006 and if this will happen, then the top at the level of $1918 will be labeled as completed impulsive cycle of a very large degree and correction downward might still continue for years.
Another confirmation comes from Non-Linear Regression model, that shows flattering and an upward slope pointing higher.
1006.00 – Invalidation Level
1049.91 – Projected Target For Wave 5
1170.33 – 61%Fibo
The market might currently be in an accumulation cycle, which is why the correction is taking so much time. Nevertheless, there is still one small wave downward missing to complete the Ending Diagonal and then market should be ready to continue the up trend.
So far there is NO VOLUME CONFIRMATION that the accumulation cycle is completed.