EUR/USD H1 Pre-FOMC Analysis

General and macro overview for 18/11/2015: 

The FOMC meeting minutes are scheduled for release at 7:00 pm GMT and are the most expected macroeconomic event for today as they may cast some light on the central bank’s intentions in December. The latest statement was far more hawkish than the markets had anticipated and it send quite a clear message about a possible short-term interest rate hike this year in December. Two weeks after, the NFP report beat all expectations, which satisfied Fed policy makers for sure. Today’s Fed minutes might reveal how strong the rate hike consensus is among policy makers as the December rate hike has gone from 35% chances before last months statement to 64% chances now.

The EUR/USD pair is still trading inside of the weekly range, however there are some signs that a possible impulsive wave progression to the downside had begun already. The current  counts indicates a possible wave 3 green target projection and then a corrective re-bound towards the level of 1.0833. If this level is violated, it might mean, the wave D black of the triangle had been completed and now wave E black is in progress. If this level is capped then a possible wave 4 green top would be in place and downside trend continuation is anticipated.

1.0588 – 1.0578 – Projected Target Zone for Wave 3 Green (higher cycle)
1.0588 – WS2
1.0630 –  Wave iii Bottom
1.0660 – WS1
1.0743 – Weekly Pivot
1.0751 – Wave iv Top
1.0812 – WR1
1.0833 – Wave 4 Purple Top (lower cycle)

Trading recommendations:
Traders should place buy limit orders at the level of 1.0588 with tight SL and TP open for now ( for longer term traders TP=1.0833).

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About the author

Sebastian Seliga

Aktywny trader, analityk, ekspert metod inwestycyjnych bazujących na teorii fal Elliott'a, geometrii Fibonacciego i nie tylko.

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