EUR/USD H4 Analysis

General overview for 04/02/2016:

The recent analysis of EUR/USD pair had pointed out a possible upside breakout from the triangle-shaped congestion zone to one of the projected target levels. The corrective structure were a little bit longer than anticipated, nevertheless, the breakout direction was still correct. The analysis can be seen here:

Currently, the second projected target zone has been hit and it looks like after the five upward impulsive waves the cycle is completed and now the correction should take place. We cam see on H4 time frame chart the diminishing momentum between wave a top and wave c top, one can even suggest the bearish divergence. Nevertheless, the larger structure cycle still does not look completed as only wave A had been made. Therefore, some corrective cycle should be expected now ( ideally the level of 1.1060 should be tested) and one more wave to the upside is still being anticipated.

Now,  this last picture is somewhat brave and non-ordinary count on daily chart that just caught my mind. If we look at the larger time frame, we can still see the corrective cycle is completed ( wave 4 top after the big triangle is done) and then there is impulsive decline to the downside that is truncated ( fifth wave truncation, wave 5). If it is so, then the bottom for a large cycle wave C and B is in place and current wave progression to the upside is the beginning of a very large degree cycle upward that will go above the top of the level of  1.6053, possibly in an impulsive fashion. The first confirmation will come with the demand breakthrough zone is violated (1.1261 – 1.1310), then wave 4 top is violated (1.1497) and then the   level of 1.1740 breakout in impulsive style should happen. On the other side, this scenario will be invalidated if 1.0700 and head towards longer-term support at the level of 1.0455. 

About the author

Sebastian Seliga

Aktywny trader, analityk, ekspert metod inwestycyjnych bazujących na teorii fal Elliott'a, geometrii Fibonacciego i nie tylko.

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